Market Newsletters

April was a blockbuster month for equities worldwide and particularly
in the US as further signs of economic rebound combined with stable interest rates and a good start to the corporate first quarter earnings season encouraged investors to commit more. The S&P’s 500 rose a whopping 5.34% on a total return basis. The Nasdaq Composite was up 5.43%. The Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) was up a more modest 2.10%.
Internationally, investors’ enthusiasm was more contained with the rate of vaccination accelerating but well behind that of the US and an eventual re-opening of economies pushed farther into the future.

In March, equities generally continued their progression but not without several reversals along the way. The S&P’s 500 rose a solid 4.38% on a total return basis. The Nasdaq Composite was up a mere .48% as the rotation in favor of “value” stocks continued at the expense of the technology sector. The Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) was up 1.00%.
Internationally, the EPAC BMI (developed economies) was up 1.84% and the MSCI EM (emerging markets) sunk 1.51%.

February saw most equity indices rise, sometimes sharply, in spite of a late reversal in the month due to rising interest rates. The S&P’s 500 rose 2.76% on a total return basis while the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.01% and the Russell 2000
(Small US Caps) continued to catch up, rising 6.23%.

Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) was up 2.37% and the MSCI EM (emerging markets) a more modest .76%. The USD was mostly stable against a basket of diversified trading partners’ currencies, although it did rise 1% against the €.

January offered a mixed picture for equity markets in general. The S&P’s 500 dropped 1.01% on a total return basis while the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.44% and the Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) rose 5.03%, continuing on its strong year-end trend.

Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) was down .88% but the MSCI EM (emerging markets) rose 3.07%. Unusually when small US capitalization stocks and emerging market equities rally, the USD rose by about 1.33% against a basket of diversified trading partners’ currencies.

nertia is a powerful force of nature! Equity markets moved up again in December, following their incredible performance of November. The S&P’s 500 rose 3.84% on a total return basis. The Nasdaq Composite was up 5.71% and the Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) rose even more, with a 8.65% monthly performance. Revived talks, eventually successful, of a stimulus package of a little over $900 billion kept equity markets on their positive trend and pushed all indices up, stateside as well as internationally.

The S&P’s 500 rose 10.95% on a total return basis. The Nasdaq Composite was up 11.91% and the Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) rose even more, clocking a 13.82% monthly performance. The removal of uncertainty associated with the US election, the mixed political signal it sent and, more importantly, the announcements by Pfizer and Moderna that they both had developed highly effective vaccines to fight the current pandemic, all contributed to pushing equities to new highs.

The S&P’s 500 ended the month of October down 2.66% on atotal return basis. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.26% whilethe Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) was down a milder .64%.Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) wasdown 3.69% while the MSCI EM (emerging markets) counteredthe negative trend and delivered a positive 2.06% return in October.Small US Caps) was down a milder 1.95%. Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) was down 2.51% and the MSCI EM (emerging markets) a smaller 1.60%.

After relentlessly moving up in July and August, US equity indices reversed course in September. The S&P’s 500 ended the month down 3.80% on a total return basis. The Nasdaq Composite dropped a sharper 5.10% while the Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) was down a milder 1.95%. Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) was down 2.51% and the MSCI EM (emerging markets) a smaller 1.60%.

August was another high-performance month for equities in the US and around the world. A combination of ultra-loose monetary conditions globally and encouraging economic news propelled indices to all-time highs.
The S&P’s 500 ended the month up 7.19% on a total return basis.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 9.70%, while the Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) was up 5.63%. Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) was up 5.29% and the MSCI EM (emerging markets) a much smaller 2.21%.

Equities rallied globally yet again in July fueled by a combination of better-than-expected second quarter corporate earnings, an unprecedented general agreement among European nations with grants and low interest rate loans and a weakening USD.

S&P’s 500 ended the month up 5.64% on a total return basis. The Nasdaq Composite rose 6.85%, while the Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) was up 2.77%. Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) was up 4.5 and the MSCI EM
(emerging markets) a larger 8.91%.

Equities continued to rally in June, albeit at a slower pace. The S&P’s 500 ended the month up 1.99% on a total return basis. The Nasdaq Composite rose 6.07%, while the Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) was up 3.53%. Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) was up 2.85% and the MSCI EM (emerging markets) a larger 7.85%.

The general market rise was associated with the gradual re-opening of most economies around the world. In the US, the positive market move in June was not without volatility, as illustrated in the chart below.

The upward movement in equity markets worldwide continued in May, albeit at a slower pace. The S&P’s 500 was up a robust 4.76% while the Nasdaq went up 6.89% and the Russell Small Cap index 6.51%. As of the end of May, US equities had recouped close to 95% of their 2020 losses. The speed at which the correction took place was unprecedented and so has been the rebound.

Internationally, all indices rose but generally less spectacularly than their US counterparts. The S&P’s EPAC BMI (developed economies) rose 4.56%. Emerging market indices were up 3.29% (MSCI EM) and 3.97% (MSCI Frontier 100). The USD was down a bit In May, causing some export driven developed economies (Germany, Japan) to finally outperform. The DAX was up 9.37% in May and The TOPIX was up about 7.05%.